Volatility forecasting using GARCH models – Complete Phd and Masters Thesis

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Introduction:

Volatility forecasting is an essential aspect of financial modeling and risk management. Accurately predicting volatility can help investors make informed decisions and optimize their portfolios. One of the most widely used models for volatility forecasting is the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. This model allows for the estimation of time-varying volatility in financial time series data, making it a powerful tool for risk analysis and portfolio optimization.

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Background of study
1.3 Problem Statement
1.4 Objective of study
1.5 Limitation of study
1.6 Scope of study
1.7 Significance of study
1.8 Structure of the Thesis
1.9 Definition of terms

Chapter 2: Literature Review

2.1 Introduction to Volatility forecasting
2.2 Traditional methods of volatility forecasting
2.3 GARCH model: Theory and applications
2.4 Extensions of the GARCH model
2.5 Empirical studies on GARCH models
2.6 Comparison of GARCH models with other volatility forecasting models
2.7 Challenges and limitations of GARCH models
2.8 Recent developments and innovations in volatility forecasting
2.9 Applications of GARCH models in different financial markets
2.10 Summary of literature review

Chapter 3: Research Methodology

3.1 Introduction to research methodology
3.2 Data collection
3.3 Model specification
3.4 Estimation techniques
3.5 Model evaluation and selection criteria
3.6 Testing for model stability and robustness
3.7 Forecasting performance metrics
3.8 Sensitivity analysis
3.9 Interpretation of results
3.10 Summary of research methodology

Chapter 4: Discussion of Findings

4.1 Descriptive statistics of the dataset
4.2 Model estimation results
4.3 Forecasting performance evaluation
4.4 Sensitivity analysis results
4.5 Comparison with other volatility forecasting models
4.6 Implications for investors and portfolio managers
4.7 Managerial implications
4.8 Recommendations for future research
4.9 Limitations of the study
4.10 Conclusions from the findings

Chapter 5: Conclusion and Summary

5.1 Summary of key findings
5.2 Contributions to the existing literature
5.3 Managerial implications and recommendations
5.4 Theoretical implications and future research directions
5.5 Conclusion

Thesis Overview on Volatility forecasting using GARCH models:

Volatility forecasting plays a crucial role in financial decision-making and risk management. The accuracy of volatility predictions can significantly impact investment strategies and portfolio performance. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models have become popular tools for volatility forecasting due to their ability to capture time-varying volatility patterns. This thesis aims to explore the effectiveness of GARCH models in predicting volatility and to provide insights into their applications in financial markets.

Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the topic, outlining the background, problem statement, objectives, limitations, scope, significance, structure of the thesis, and definition of key terms. Chapter 2 presents a comprehensive literature review on volatility forecasting, traditional methods, GARCH models, extensions, empirical studies, comparisons with other models, challenges, recent developments, and applications. Chapter 3 discusses the research methodology, including data collection, model specification, estimation techniques, model evaluation, testing, forecasting metrics, sensitivity analysis, and interpretation of results.

Chapter 4 delves into the discussion of findings, covering descriptive statistics, model estimation, forecasting performance, sensitivity analysis, comparisons, implications, recommendations, limitations, and conclusions. Finally, Chapter 5 concludes the thesis with a summary of key findings, contributions to the literature, implications for practice, theoretical insights, recommendations for future research, and a conclusion.

In conclusion, this thesis aims to contribute to the existing body of knowledge on volatility forecasting using GARCH models and provide valuable insights for investors, portfolio managers, and researchers in the financial industry.

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